Within AARO Reports
One of the easiest ways to misread AARO's statistics is to assume that every increase in reported unidentified anomalous phenomena (UAP) reflects a rise in new incidents. In reality, AARO's annual intake figures combine two different things: events that occurred during the current reporting period and older events that were only submitted later.
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Current Incidents Versus Older Newly Submitted Events
The clearest example comes from AARO’s Fiscal Year 2024 reporting cycle. The office reported receiving 757 UAP reports during the covered period. At first glance, that figure appears to indicate a dramatic rise in incidents. However, AARO’s own breakdown shows that only 485 reports involved events that actually occurred during the reporting window from May 2023 to June 2024. The remaining 272 reports described incidents from 2021 and 2022 that had not previously been submitted to AARO and therefore had not appeared in earlier annual reports. [U.S. Department of War+2U.S. Department of War]
This means that more than one-third of the reported intake was not new activity at all. It was historical activity entering the system for the first time. Readers who focus only on the headline figure of 757 may therefore overestimate the growth rate of current UAP encounters. [U.S. Department of War]media.defense.govFY24 CONSOLIDATED ANNUAL REPORT ON UAP 508Department of WarFiscal Year 2024 Consolidated Annual Report on…14 Nov 2024 — The remaining 272 reports featured UAP incidents that oc…
The distinction is not merely technical. AARO explicitly states that its reports include both current-period incidents and older cases that were absent from previous reporting cycles. Consequently, annual intake figures measure reports received, not necessarily incidents occurring during that same year. [U.S. Department of War]war.govdepartment of defense releases the annual report on unidentified anomalous phenDepartment of WarDepartment of Defense Releases the Annual Report on…14 Nov 2024 — The remaining 272 reports featured UAP incidents th…
Why Better Reporting Pipelines Affect Headline Totals
A rise in official reports can occur because reporting mechanisms improve, because awareness increases, or because organisations begin forwarding older records that previously remained in separate databases.
The Pentagon has pointed to greater awareness and improved reporting channels as important reasons for rising totals. News coverage of the 2024 report noted that officials attributed much of the increase to expanded reporting and greater familiarity with the process rather than concluding that unexplained objects had suddenly become more common. [ABC News]abcnews.comABC NewsPentagon's UFO report finds over 700 new cases, with 21…14 Nov 2024 — From May 2023 to June 2024, AARO received 757 new incide… [2ABC7 San Francisco]abc7news.compentagon ufo reportAARO). From May 2023 to June 2024, AARO received 757 new incident reports, 485 that occurred in that time period and another 272 reports…
This pattern is not unique to the 2024 report. Earlier UAP reporting efforts also incorporated older cases that had not been examined previously. As government agencies created more formal reporting structures, historical observations that once remained scattered across military, intelligence, and aviation channels became eligible for inclusion in official databases. [Wikipedia]WikipediaAll-domain Anomaly Resolution OfficeAll-domain Anomaly Resolution Office
A useful comparison is a public-health database that suddenly begins receiving years of delayed paperwork. The total number of entries increases rapidly, but that does not necessarily mean the underlying phenomenon is accelerating at the same pace. The database is becoming more complete.
For AARO, the creation of standardised reporting pathways means that pilots, military personnel, and other government observers have clearer routes for submitting information. As those systems mature, older events can continue entering the archive long after they occurred. [U.S. Department of War]war.govdr jon kosloski director aaro media roundtable on the fy24 consolidated annualDepartment of WarDr. Jon Kosloski, Director, AARO, Media Roundtable on the…14 Nov 2024 —… AARO has received over 1,600 UAP reports…
A Concrete Example of How Growth Can Be Misread
Consider two different ways of describing the same 2024 data:
- Headline interpretation: AARO received 757 reports, suggesting a major increase in UAP activity.
- Time-adjusted interpretation: 485 reports involved incidents occurring during the reporting period, while 272 were older incidents from 2021–2022 that were only now entering the system. [U.S. Department of War]war.govdr jon kosloski director aaro media roundtable on the fy24 consolidated annualDepartment of WarDr. Jon Kosloski, Director, AARO, Media Roundtable on the…14 Nov 2024 —… AARO has received over 1,600 UAP reports…
Both statements are factually correct, but they answer different questions.
The first describes administrative intake. The second comes closer to describing the timing of observed events. Confusing these measures can produce exaggerated conclusions about trends in UAP activity.
This does not mean the increase is meaningless. Growing intake demonstrates that more information is reaching analysts and that the government’s collection network is expanding. It simply means that intake growth and incident growth are not interchangeable metrics. [U.S. Department of War]war.govdr jon kosloski director aaro media roundtable on the fy24 consolidated annualDepartment of WarDr. Jon Kosloski, Director, AARO, Media Roundtable on the…14 Nov 2024 —… AARO has received over 1,600 UAP reports…
How to Read Intake Growth Without Overstating It
When evaluating future AARO reports, three questions help separate reporting growth from incident growth.
When did the reported events occur?
A large annual total may include incidents from multiple years rather than a single reporting period. [U.S. Department of War]war.govdr jon kosloski director aaro media roundtable on the fy24 consolidated annualDepartment of WarDr. Jon Kosloski, Director, AARO, Media Roundtable on the…14 Nov 2024 —… AARO has received over 1,600 UAP reports…
How many reports are newly submitted historical cases?
Backlogged reports can substantially increase intake numbers even if the underlying rate of incidents remains stable. [U.S. Department of War]war.govdr jon kosloski director aaro media roundtable on the fy24 consolidated annualDepartment of WarDr. Jon Kosloski, Director, AARO, Media Roundtable on the…14 Nov 2024 —… AARO has received over 1,600 UAP reports…
Have reporting systems changed?
New reporting requirements, increased awareness, and improved collection channels can all raise official counts without requiring a corresponding rise in unusual activity. [ABC News]abcnews.comABC NewsPentagon's UFO report finds over 700 new cases, with 21…14 Nov 2024 — From May 2023 to June 2024, AARO received 757 new incide…
For readers following the UFO disclosure movement, this distinction is important because official statistics are often used to argue that unexplained encounters are becoming more common. AARO’s own data show that rising totals can also reflect something less dramatic but equally significant: the gradual construction of a more comprehensive reporting system. The office’s intake numbers measure how much information is entering the database. Determining whether unusual events themselves are increasing requires a closer look at when those events actually occurred, not just when they were reported. [U.S. Department of War+2U.S. Department of War]
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Endnotes
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Source: [media]({{ ‘media/’ | relative_url }}). defense.gov
Title: FY24 CONSOLIDATED ANNUAL REPORT ON UAP 508
Link: https://media.defense.gov/2024/Nov/14/2003583603/-1/-1/0/FY24-CONSOLIDATED-ANNUAL-REPORT-ON-UAP-508.PDFSource snippet
Department of WarFiscal Year 2024 Consolidated Annual Report on...14 Nov 2024 — The remaining 272 reports featured UAP incidents that oc...
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Source: war.gov
Title: department of defense releases the annual report on unidentified anomalous phen
Link: https://www.war.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3964824/department-of-defense-releases-the-annual-report-on-unidentified-anomalous-phen/Source snippet
Department of WarDepartment of Defense Releases the Annual Report on...14 Nov 2024 — The remaining 272 reports featured UAP incidents th...
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Source: war.gov
Title: dr jon kosloski director aaro media roundtable on the fy24 consolidated annual
Link: https://www.war.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/3965734/dr-jon-kosloski-director-aaro-media-roundtable-on-the-fy24-consolidated-annual/Source snippet
Department of WarDr. Jon Kosloski, Director, AARO, Media Roundtable on the...14 Nov 2024 —... AARO has received over 1,600 UAP reports...
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Source: Wikipedia
Title: All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office
Link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/All-domain_Anomaly_Resolution_Office -
Source: abcnews.com
Link: https://abcnews.com/Politics/pentagons-ufo-report-finds-700-new-cases-21/story?id=115878401Source snippet
ABC NewsPentagon's UFO report finds over 700 new cases, with 21...14 Nov 2024 — From May 2023 to June 2024, AARO received 757 new incide...
Published: May 2023
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Source: abc7news.com
Title: pentagon ufo report
Link: https://abc7news.com/post/pentagon-ufo-report/15546396/Source snippet
(AARO). From May 2023 to June 2024, AARO received 757 new incident reports, 485 that occurred in that time period and another 272 reports...
Published: May 2023
Additional References
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Source: intelligence.senate.gov
Link: https://www.intelligence.senate.gov/2023/07/13/publication-report-to-accompany-s-4443-intelligence-authorization-act-fiscal-year-2024/Source snippet
2103, Intelligence Authorization...13 Jul 2023 — The Act authorizes appropriations for intelligence and intelligence-related activities...
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Source: read-me.org
Title: fiscal year 2024 consolidated annual report on unidentified anomalous phenomena
Link: https://read-me.org/more-social-sciences/2024/12/21/fiscal-year-2024-consolidated-annual-report-on-unidentified-anomalous-phenomenaSource snippet
Fiscal Year 2024 Consolidated Annual Report on...21 Dec 2024 — The remaining 272 reports featured UAP incidents that occurred between 20...
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Source: youtube.com
Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4EnWX_qflQMSource snippet
Pentagon UAP report 757 cases Kosloski Breaking Down UAP Footage with the Head of The Pentagon’s UAP Taskforce, Dr. Jon Kosloski StarTalk...
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Source: defensescoop.com
Title: uap aaro chief unveils pentagon annual caseload analysis new efforts
Link: https://defensescoop.com/2024/11/14/uap-aaro-chief-unveils-pentagon-annual-caseload-analysis-new-efforts/Source snippet
DefenseScoop'The truly anomalous': New AARO chief unveils Pentagon's...14 Nov 2024 — Included in those are the 757 new reports that were...
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Source: asis.ucdavis.edu
Link: https://asis.ucdavis.edu/sitefarm/file.cfm?committee_id=115&id=513&view=ReportSource snippet
ucdavis.edu[https://asis.ucdavis.edu/sitefarm/file.cfm?committ...No=](https://asis.ucdavis.edu/sitefarm/file.cfm?committ...No=) information is available for this page...
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Source: icc-cpi.int
Title: 2022 12 05 annual report of the office of the prosecutor
Link: https://www.icc-cpi.int/sites/default/files/2022-12/2022-12-05-annual-report-of-the-office-of-the-prosecutor.pdfSource snippet
Annual Report of the Office of the Prosecutor1 Dec 2022 — After confirmation of the charges in July 2021, the trial opened in. February 2...
Published: July 2021
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Source: meritalk.com
Title: uap reports soar dod office receives 757 new sightings
Link: https://www.meritalk.com/articles/uap-reports-soar-dod-office-receives-757-new-sightings/Source snippet
UAP Reports Soar: DoD Office Receives 757 New Sightings15 Nov 2024 — The remaining 272 reports featured UAP incidents that occurred betwe...
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Source: en.wikisource.org
Title: Page:AARO Historical Record Report Volume 1 2024
Link: https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Page%3AAARO_Historical_Record_Report_Volume_1_2024.pdf/12Source snippet
wikisource.orgPage:AARO Historical Record Report Volume 1 2024.pdf/124 May 2024 — Use of the UAP naming convention, while imperfect, is t...
Published: May 2024
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Source: 315aw.afrc.af.mil
Title: dod examining unidentified anomalous phenomena
Link: https://www.315aw.afrc.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/3966012/dod-examining-unidentified-anomalous-phenomena/Source snippet
Examining Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena14 Nov 2024 — The remaining 272 reports featured UAP incidents that occurred between 2021 and 2...
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Source: jbsa.mil
Title: dod examining unidentified anomalous phenomena
Link: https://www.jbsa.mil/News/News/Article/3966080/dod-examining-unidentified-anomalous-phenomena/Source snippet
15 Nov 2024 — The remaining 272 reports featured UAP incidents that occurred between 2021 and 2022 but were not reported to AARO until th...
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